FC Tokyo 0-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.48
6+ Goals
9%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 34% vs market 32.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.97
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
12.65
X/1
9%
5.58
X/2
16%
5.64
X/X
11%
3.74
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
11%
4.02
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+2.5pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.2pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.7pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.28/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.35
+8% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
16.6 Crosses 15.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.37 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
372 Passes 310
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
01.10.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-0 HT 2-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
11.06.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3-1 HT 2-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
19.04.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JLK
05.04.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
10.09.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
29.04.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 1-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
0-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.84 xG 1.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
334 Passes 418
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gamba Osaka edged past FC Tokyo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Gamba Osaka made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 44% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 56%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.84 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.00 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka?

FC Tokyo 0-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 38%, draw 29%, Gamba Osaka 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FC Tokyo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
26 May 2024
08:00 Vissel Kobe vs Tokyo Verdy Analysis →
09:00 Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga Analysis →
09:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis →
10:00 Urawa Red Diamonds vs Machida Zelvia Analysis →