Urawa Red Diamonds 1-2 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.91
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
18.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.83
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
18%
5.6
X/2
13%
5.72
X/X
16%
4.0
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
10%
3.95
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+5.0pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.2pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.7pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.12/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.43
+1% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
329 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
15.7 Crosses 26.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
1-2
AWAY Machida Zelvia
0.60 xG 2.05
67% Ball Possession 33%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
552 Passes 213
87% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Urawa Red Diamonds vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia nicked a narrow win over Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Urawa Red Diamonds at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Urawa Red Diamonds had 67% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 33%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 0.60 to 2.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Machida Zelvia's control.

What was the final score of Urawa Red Diamonds vs Machida Zelvia?

Urawa Red Diamonds 1-2 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - J1 League on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Urawa Red Diamonds vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Urawa Red Diamonds win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Urawa Red Diamonds 41%, draw 28%, Machida Zelvia 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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