Atlanta United 4-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 26 May 2025

📅26/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
8.01
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.83
1/2
10%
24.2
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
12%
6.27
X/2
11%
5.85
X/X
11%
5.42
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
14%
3.43
2/X
8%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-3.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.1pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 42%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.32/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.42
+0% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
20.3 Crosses 11.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
0W-3D-3L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.44 xG 1.55
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
394 Passes 352
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.03.2025 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
16.05.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
21.04.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
22.10.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 2-2 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
31.08.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-2 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
14.08.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 2-2 HT 2-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
4-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.67 xG 1.60
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 29
7 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 11
293 Passes 531
82% Pass Accuracy 90%
21 Box Touches 37
7 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United beat FC Cincinnati 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Atlanta United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 37% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 63%, shots finished 12-29, expected goals 2.67 to 1.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atlanta United and 1.83 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati?

Atlanta United 4-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 26/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlanta United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 39%, draw 27%, FC Cincinnati 34%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlanta United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlanta United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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