Gürcistan 2-0 Portekiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Euro, 26 Jun 2024

📅26/06/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
6.35
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
57%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.74
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.25
6+ Goals
8%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 30% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
13.7
1/2
8%
24.0
1/X
6%
21.45
X/1
8%
16.35
X/2
18%
3.41
X/X
11%
6.39
2/1
5%
94.0
2/2
31%
1.64
2/X
6%
20.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
13%
+7.7pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.8pp
57%
Away Win
68%
-10.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gürcistan EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Portekiz EU Bookmakers 72%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.11/3.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.09/0.58
+41% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +72% / +150%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 83%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.5
16.0 Crosses 17.4
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gürcistan
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Portekiz
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
31.05.2008 Portekiz Portekiz 2-0 HT 2-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gürcistan
2-0
AWAY Portekiz
1.65 xG 2.04
28% Ball Possession 72%
7 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 11
206 Passes 642
76% Pass Accuracy 93%
13 Box Touches 30
7 Crosses 38
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gürcistan vs Portekiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gürcistan saw off Portekiz 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Portekiz at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Gürcistan had 28% of the ball to Portekiz's 72%, shots finished 7-22, expected goals 1.65 to 2.04.

What was the final score of Gürcistan vs Portekiz?

Gürcistan 2-0 Portekiz in the Euro on 26/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gürcistan vs Portekiz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portekiz win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Gürcistan 20%, draw 23%, Portekiz 57%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Portekiz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Portekiz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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