Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 Indy Eleven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 26 Jun 2025

📅26/06/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 28% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
1.55/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.23
+19% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
16.7 Crosses 17.6
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Indy Eleven
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.65 xG 0.88
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
382 Passes 359
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-0 HT 2-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
21.07.2024 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-2 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
23.07.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
12.03.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 HT 0-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
31.07.2022 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 1-3 HT 1-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
20.03.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 HT 1-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
3-1
AWAY Indy Eleven
1.76 xG 1.29
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
266 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies saw off Indy Eleven 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 45% of the ball to Indy Eleven's 55%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.76 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.33 for Indy Eleven.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 Indy Eleven in the USL Championship on 26/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 42%, draw 24%, Indy Eleven 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ BTTS Yes
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