Loudoun United 1-4 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 26 Jun 2025

📅26/06/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.41
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
12%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 28% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
-0.0pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-2.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 45%
-12% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.47/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.04
-1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
16.3 Crosses 20.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Loudoun United
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Louisville City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.82 xG 1.64
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
368 Passes 293
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2025 Loudoun United Loudoun United 2-1 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLKP
16.04.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 2-1 HT 2-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United ABDK
22.03.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
07.09.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
20.04.2024 Loudoun United Loudoun United 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
24.09.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-2 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Loudoun United
1-4
AWAY Louisville City
1.52 xG 0.96
76% Ball Possession 24%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
525 Passes 120
87% Pass Accuracy 62%
25 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Loudoun United vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City ran out comfortable winners over Loudoun United 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Louisville City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Loudoun United had 76% of the ball to Louisville City's 24%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.52 to 0.96 — the balance of chances actually favoured Loudoun United.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Loudoun United and 1.50 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Loudoun United vs Louisville City?

Loudoun United 1-4 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 26/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Loudoun United vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Loudoun United 35%, draw 28%, Louisville City 38%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ BTTS Yes
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