Louisville City 2-1 Loudoun United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 29% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.9pp
20%
Draw
25%
-5.3pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 23%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +71% / +71%
3.13/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.28
+24% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +117%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
11.8 Crosses 5.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Loudoun United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.94 xG 0.58
49% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
326 Passes 347
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.03.2025 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
07.09.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
20.04.2024 Loudoun United Loudoun United 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
24.09.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-2 HT 1-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
09.07.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
18.09.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 4-2 HT 3-1 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
2-1
AWAY Loudoun United
1.69 xG 1.67
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 2
185 Passes 408
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Loudoun United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City squeezed past Loudoun United 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Louisville City had 36% of the ball to Loudoun United's 64%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.69 to 1.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Louisville City and 0.50 for Loudoun United.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Loudoun United?

Louisville City 2-1 Loudoun United in the USA - Open Cup on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Loudoun United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 53%, draw 20%, Loudoun United 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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