Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 26 Jul 2024

Bohemians
1-1 HT 1-1
Dundalk
📅26/07/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Ireland - Premier League – 2024

Bohemians vs Dundalk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.81
No
58%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.62
6+ Goals
7%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 33% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.46
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
19%
4.19
X/2
9%
8.2
X/X
11%
4.73
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
10%
6.29
2/X
8%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.8pp
58%
BTTS No
49%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bohemians v Dundalk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bohemians EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Dundalk EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.22/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.93
-12% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
282 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 70%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
21.9 Crosses 23.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2

Bohemians vs Dundalk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bohemians
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Dundalk
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.99 xG 0.94
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
237 Passes 228
67% Pass Accuracy 65%
18 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
26.04.2024 Dundalk Dundalk 2-0 HT 2-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
15.04.2024 Bohemians Bohemians 1-0 HT 0-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
27.10.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 2-0 HT 0-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
07.07.2023 Bohemians Bohemians 3-2 HT 1-2 Dundalk Dundalk İRL
19.05.2023 Dundalk Dundalk 2-2 HT 2-0 Bohemians Bohemians İRL
24.02.2023 Bohemians Bohemians 2-1 HT 1-0 Dundalk Dundalk İRL

Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bohemians
1-1
AWAY Dundalk
1.62 xG 0.35
73% Ball Possession 27%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
481 Passes 129
84% Pass Accuracy 58%
41 Box Touches 12
36 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bohemians vs Dundalk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bohemians and Dundalk couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bohemians at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Bohemians had 73% of the ball to Dundalk's 27%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.62 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bohemians had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bohemians and 1.50 for Dundalk.

What was the final score of Bohemians vs Dundalk?

Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk in the Ireland - Premier League on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bohemians vs Dundalk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bohemians win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bohemians 50%, draw 27%, Dundalk 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bohemians), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bohemians) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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