South Melbourne 4-0 Port Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 26 Jul 2024

📅26/07/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-9.7pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.0pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.1pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Melbourne EU Bookmakers 22%
+9% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +20%
2.21/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.89
-2% / +64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
247 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 17.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Port Melbourne
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
3.39 xG 3.09
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
134 Passes 424
55% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 2-3 HT 1-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
22.07.2023 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 0-4 HT 0-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
24.04.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 5-2 HT 3-1 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
30.07.2022 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
30.04.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 3-0 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
18.06.2021 South Melbourne South Melbourne 0-1 HT 0-0 Port Melbourne Port Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Port Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne ran out comfortable winners over Port Melbourne 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for South Melbourne and 1.17 for Port Melbourne.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Port Melbourne?

South Melbourne 4-0 Port Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Port Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 49%, draw 22%, Port Melbourne 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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