Empoli 2-0 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 26 Jul 2024

Empoli
2-0 HT 0-0
Spezia
📅26/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Empoli vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.62
6+ Goals
10%
14.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.62 — our 26% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Empoli v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
0.75/0.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-58% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +72%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
397 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards –

Empoli vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Spezia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 0.94
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
428 Passes 287
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.02.2023 Empoli Empoli 2-2 HT 0-2 Spezia Spezia İTA
14.08.2022 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
09.04.2022 Empoli Empoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTA
19.12.2021 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
19.06.2020 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTB
29.10.2019 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Empoli beat Spezia 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Empoli as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spezia led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Empoli and 1.00 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Spezia?

Empoli 2-0 Spezia in the Friendlies on 26/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Empoli win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Empoli 48%, draw 25%, Spezia 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Empoli), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Empoli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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