CA Sarmiento 0-2 Lanus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
30%
2.7
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
69%
1.28
Over 2.5
31%
3.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.6
No
64%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
1.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
13%
8.93
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.13
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.4
X/1
10%
6.54
X/2
18%
4.58
X/X
19%
2.92
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
13%
3.62
2/X
6%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 69%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+5.9pp
30%
Draw
34%
-3.5pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-2.4pp
69%
Under 2.5
75%
-5.9pp
31%
Over 2.5
25%
+5.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
34%
+2.1pp
64%
BTTS No
66%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lanus EU Bookmakers 43%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.06/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.02
-10% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
253 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
20.3 Crosses 19.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lanus
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.72 xG 1.31
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
227 Passes 354
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2025 Lanus Lanus 2-0 HT 2-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
31.08.2024 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-0 HT 0-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
14.02.2024 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-1 HT 0-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
19.09.2023 Lanus Lanus 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
22.04.2023 Lanus Lanus 2-1 HT 2-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
06.08.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 2-1 HT 2-0 Lanus Lanus ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
0-2
AWAY Lanus
1.25 xG 0.81
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
286 Passes 254
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs Lanus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lanus saw off CA Sarmiento 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (33% / 30% / 37%) promised a tight game; Lanus found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, CA Sarmiento had 53% of the ball to Lanus's 47%, shots finished 14-7, expected goals 1.25 to 0.81 — on chances, CA Sarmiento could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lanus led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for CA Sarmiento and 1.00 for Lanus.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs Lanus?

CA Sarmiento 0-2 Lanus in the Argentina - Premier League on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs Lanus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lanus win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 33%, draw 30%, Lanus 37%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lanus), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lanus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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