El Nacional 2-2 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-4% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Libertad
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.47 xG 0.94
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
186 Passes 236
65% Pass Accuracy 71%
15 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.04.2025 Libertad Libertad 1-3 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
10.11.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-4 HT 0-3 Libertad Libertad EKV1
18.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-2 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
26.09.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
23.04.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 4-2 HT 2-2 Libertad Libertad EKV1
21.10.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 4-2 HT 2-1 Libertad Libertad EKV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
2-2
AWAY Libertad
1.32 xG 1.76
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
315 Passes 246
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 20
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional and Libertad shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, El Nacional had 54% of the ball to Libertad's 46%, shots finished 19-19, expected goals 1.32 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for El Nacional and 1.50 for Libertad.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Libertad?

El Nacional 2-2 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 38%, draw 26%, Libertad 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (El Nacional), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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26 Jul 2025
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