Haka 2-3 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.5
No
39%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.98
4-5 Goals
26%
2.9
6+ Goals
13%
7.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.72
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
5%
12.4
X/1
18%
5.17
X/2 EV+ ✓
14%
7.63
X/X
13%
5.64
2/1
6%
21.75
2/2
8%
4.97
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · X/2 at 7.63 — our 14% vs market 9.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
47%
+2.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+1.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-1.7pp
61%
BTTS Yes
62%
-1.3pp
39%
BTTS No
38%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Haka EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.62/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/1.69
-4% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -72% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
360 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
26.0 Crosses 20.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Haka
5W-1D-0L
AWAY KTP Kotka
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.59 xG 0.80
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
257 Passes 422
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.05.2025 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-0 HT 0-0 Haka Haka FİN
22.01.2025 Haka Haka 3-1 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FLK
09.03.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 2-3 Haka Haka HAZ
07.10.2023 Haka Haka 2-0 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
21.08.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-2 HT 0-1 Haka Haka FİN
05.05.2023 Haka Haka 4-2 HT 1-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Haka
2-3
AWAY KTP Kotka
1.33 xG 1.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
331 Passes 367
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
32 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Haka vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KTP Kotka edged past Haka 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Haka at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Haka had 49% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 51%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.33 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Haka had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Haka and 1.00 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of Haka vs KTP Kotka?

Haka 2-3 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Haka vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Haka win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Haka 49%, draw 24%, KTP Kotka 27%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Haka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Haka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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