IFK Mariehamn 0-1 Oulu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 26 Jul 2025

📅26/07/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
40%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.64
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.45
6+ Goals
11%
12.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.51
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.95
X/1
11%
6.64
X/2
13%
5.35
X/X
9%
4.78
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
21%
3.22
2/X
8%
12.55
Value flag · 1/X at 12.95 — our 10% vs market 5.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.2pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Oulu EU Bookmakers 45%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.39/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.25
-23% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -22%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.4 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Oulu
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.86 xG 1.32
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
250 Passes 411
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.05.2025 Oulu Oulu 0-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
19.10.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-2 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
01.09.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
17.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.09.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
09.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0-1
AWAY Oulu
0.58 xG 1.02
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
348 Passes 326
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
8 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs Oulu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oulu squeezed past IFK Mariehamn 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Oulu made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 51% of the ball to Oulu's 49%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.58 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Mariehamn had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.33 for Oulu.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs Oulu?

IFK Mariehamn 0-1 Oulu in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 26/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs Oulu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Oulu win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 32%, draw 27%, Oulu 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oulu) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Oulu) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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