Oulu 0-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.24
2-3 Goals
44%
1.83
4-5 Goals
18%
3.79
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.46
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.85
X/1
16%
4.41
X/2
6%
8.56
X/X
11%
4.78
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.65
2/2
14%
6.82
2/X
8%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.65 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oulu EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 26%
+13% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.48/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.44
+9% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
16.4 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oulu
3W-1D-2L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.23 xG 1.99
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
407 Passes 280
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.10.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-2 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
01.09.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
17.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.09.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
09.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
03.06.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oulu
0-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.11 xG 0.99
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
408 Passes 150
81% Pass Accuracy 62%
27 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn nicked a narrow win over Oulu 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Oulu at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Oulu had 68% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 32%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.11 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oulu had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Oulu and 1.67 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn?

Oulu 0-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oulu win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Oulu 45%, draw 28%, IFK Mariehamn 26%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Oulu) ✗ BTTS Yes
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