HJK Helsinki 4-1 KTP Kotka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.29
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
14%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.61
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.12
2-3 Goals
39%
2.14
4-5 Goals
27%
2.64
6+ Goals
10%
5.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.44
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
21.4
X/1
19%
3.98
X/2
4%
20.9
X/X
12%
9.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
20.6
2/2
5%
17.0
2/X
4%
25.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 7% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
73%
-7.5pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.9pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
1.75/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.01
-11% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
466 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 79%
32.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
21.0 Crosses 13.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
5W-1D-0L
AWAY KTP Kotka
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.16 xG 0.91
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
389 Passes 250
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2025 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-4 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FLK
11.06.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
09.05.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 3-3 HT 0-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
04.03.2023 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-2 HT 1-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FLK
07.08.2021 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-1 HT 0-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
24.06.2021 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-0 HT 1-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
4-1
AWAY KTP Kotka
3.37 xG 1.85
67% Ball Possession 33%
28 Total Shots 10
13 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 1
442 Passes 177
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
45 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs KTP Kotka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki swept aside KTP Kotka 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 67% of the ball to KTP Kotka's 33%, shots finished 28-10, expected goals 3.37 to 1.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.67 for KTP Kotka.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs KTP Kotka?

HJK Helsinki 4-1 KTP Kotka in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs KTP Kotka?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 65%, draw 20%, KTP Kotka 14%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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