Penybont 5-1 Aberystwyth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 26 Aug 2024

📅26/08/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.34
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.1
Over 2.5
42%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
3.13
6+ Goals
9%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 30% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
67%
-15.7pp
29%
Draw
20%
+8.2pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+7.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
44%
+13.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
56%
-13.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.9pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 16%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.68/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/2.53
-14% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
06.04.2024 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 0-3 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
23.02.2024 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
27.10.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-2 HT 0-2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
22.09.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
10.01.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
23.09.2022 Penybont Penybont 3-1 HT 2-1 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont cruised past Aberystwyth Town 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Penybont and 0.83 for Aberystwyth Town.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town?

Penybont 5-1 Aberystwyth Town in the Wales - Premier League on 26/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Aberystwyth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Penybont 51%, draw 29%, Aberystwyth Town 21%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GAL More Wales - Premier League
26 Aug 2024
16:30 Flint Town United vs Connahs Quay Analysis →
16:30 Caernarfon Town vs Bala Town Analysis →
16:30 Cardiff MU vs Haverfordwest County Analysis →
16:30 Barry Town vs Newtown Analysis →