Real Madrid (K) 3-1 Sporting CP (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 26 Sep 2024

📅26/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.37
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
30%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.18
Over Pick
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
40%
4-5
27%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
68%
-18.2pp
20%
Draw
19%
+0.7pp
30%
Away Win
13%
+17.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid (K) EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP (K) EU Bookmakers 16%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +76% / +76%
2.77/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
-6% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% /
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
397 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.0 Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid (K)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sporting CP (K)
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2024 Sporting CP (K) Sporting CP (K) 1-2 HT 1-1 Real Madrid (K) Real Madrid (K) ŞMP-K
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid (K)
3-1
AWAY Sporting CP (K)
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid (K) vs Sporting CP (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid (K) got the better of Sporting CP (K) 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid (K) as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Real Madrid (K) had 46% of the ball to Sporting CP (K)'s 54%, shots finished 17-8.

What was the final score of Real Madrid (K) vs Sporting CP (K)?

Real Madrid (K) 3-1 Sporting CP (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 26/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid (K) vs Sporting CP (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid (K) 50%, draw 20%, Sporting CP (K) 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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