Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Levski Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
4.71
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
56%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.6
Over 2.5
47%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
14%
1/X
5%
X/1
6%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
18%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
56%
Away Win
57%
-1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Levski Sofia EU Bookmakers 61%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +12%
0.93/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.36
+0% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
246 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Levski Sofia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2024 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 2-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
02.08.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-2 HT 0-1 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
18.05.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 1-2 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
02.12.2023 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 3-0 HT 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
06.08.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 HT 2-1 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
21.05.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-3 HT 0-2 Levski Sofia Levski Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-0
AWAY Levski Sofia
29% Ball Possession 71%
4 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv nicked a narrow win over Levski Sofia 1-0.

This one beat our numbers. Levski Sofia carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 29% of the ball to Levski Sofia's 71%, shots finished 4-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Levski Sofia led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 2.17 for Levski Sofia.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 Levski Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Levski Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 18%, draw 27%, Levski Sofia 56%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Levski Sofia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Levski Sofia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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