RC Strasbourg 1-2 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Sep 2025

📅26/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
2.03
Over
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
32%
3.7
2-3
37%
1.8
4-5
22%
3.1
6+
9%
10.35
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.7 — our 32% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.2pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RC Strasbourg The Market 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya The Market 48%
+0% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -2%
1.21/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.37
+31% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
310 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 83%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
16.4 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RC Strasbourg
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Marsilya
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.31 xG 1.62
46% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
328 Passes 408
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.01.2025 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
29.09.2024 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 1-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
12.01.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 1-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
25.11.2023 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 1-1 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
12.03.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 0-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
29.10.2022 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 2-2 HT 0-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RC Strasbourg
1-2
AWAY Marsilya
1.36 xG 2.02
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
323 Passes 518
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH RC Strasbourg vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya squeezed past RC Strasbourg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Marsilya made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, RC Strasbourg had 40% of the ball to Marsilya's 60%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.36 to 2.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RC Strasbourg had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for RC Strasbourg and 1.17 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of RC Strasbourg vs Marsilya?

RC Strasbourg 1-2 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RC Strasbourg vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split RC Strasbourg 36%, draw 26%, Marsilya 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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