Marsilya 1-1 RC Strasbourg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
31%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.21
Over Pick
62%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
20%
4.27
2-3
34%
1.87
4-5
33%
2.85
6+
13%
8.22
Value flag · 4-5 at 2.85 — our 33% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.98
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.7
X/1
14%
4.21
X/2
9%
10.6
X/X
11%
6.17
2/1
7%
20.3
2/2
11%
8.01
2/X
6%
16.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
47%
Home Win
59%
-11.8pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
19%
+11.6pp
38%
Under 2.5
41%
-3.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
59%
+3.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.2pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY RC Strasbourg The Market 22%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
2.08/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.57
-2% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
450 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 79%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
20.5 Crosses 14.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
1W-4D-1L
AWAY RC Strasbourg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.54 xG 1.34
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
394 Passes 338
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 1-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
12.01.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 1-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
25.11.2023 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 1-1 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
12.03.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 0-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
29.10.2022 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg 2-2 HT 0-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
21.05.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 4-0 HT 1-0 RC Strasbourg RC Strasbourg FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
1-1
AWAY RC Strasbourg
2.92 xG 0.97
70% Ball Possession 30%
18 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
530 Passes 202
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
40 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs RC Strasbourg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya and RC Strasbourg shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Marsilya at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Marsilya had 70% of the ball to RC Strasbourg's 30%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.92 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marsilya and 1.17 for RC Strasbourg.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs RC Strasbourg?

Marsilya 1-1 RC Strasbourg in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs RC Strasbourg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 47%, draw 22%, RC Strasbourg 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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