Saint-Etienne 1-1 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.75
Over
54%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2.91
2-3
38%
1.74
4-5
28%
3.76
6+
10%
16.5
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.76 — our 28% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.32
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
15%
6.12
X/2
7%
5.33
X/X
13%
4.28
2/1
11%
32.0
2/2
20%
3.48
2/X
7%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-4.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
53%
-7.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
47%
+7.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.4pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes The Market 42%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.44/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.92
+13% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +47%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.1 Crosses 20.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Nantes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 1.48
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
333 Passes 358
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 Nantes Nantes 2-2 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
21.05.2022 Nantes Nantes 1-1 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
22.12.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-1 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
03.02.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 0-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
20.09.2020 Nantes Nantes 2-2 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
12.01.2020 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 0-2 HT 0-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
1-1
AWAY Nantes
0.83 xG 1.35
75% Ball Possession 25%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
654 Passes 155
88% Pass Accuracy 66%
33 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saint-Etienne and Nantes shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 75% of the ball to Nantes's 25%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.83 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nantes led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Saint-Etienne and 1.50 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Nantes?

Saint-Etienne 1-1 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 39%, draw 27%, Nantes 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Saint-Etienne), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
19 Jan 2025
19:15 Reims vs Le Havre Analysis →
19:15 Angers vs Auxerre Analysis →
22:45 Marsilya vs RC Strasbourg Analysis →