Uganda Police vs Mbarara City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Uganda Police v Mbarara City — Team-Based Signals
Uganda Police vs Mbarara City Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Uganda Police
UGA
0-0
HT 0-0
Mbarara City
UGA
Uganda Police 1-1 Mbarara City — Actual Match Statistics
Uganda Police and Mbarara City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Uganda Police at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Uganda Police had 53% of the ball to Mbarara City's 47%, shots finished 17-11.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Uganda Police and 0.75 for Mbarara City.
What was the final score of Uganda Police vs Mbarara City?
Uganda Police 1-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 26/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Uganda Police vs Mbarara City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Uganda Police win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Uganda Police 47%, draw 29%, Mbarara City 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uganda Police) went the other way.