Winterthur 1-6 Basel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.04
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
55%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
9.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.07
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
22.3
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
7%
9.73
X/2
20%
4.18
X/X
9%
5.32
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.17
2/X
5%
13.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
22%
+2.8pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.4pp
55%
Away Win
54%
+0.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winterthur EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Basel EU Bookmakers 58%
+15% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -11%
1.03/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.16
-14% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +29%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
257 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 79%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
14.0 Crosses 21.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winterthur
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Basel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.69 xG 1.91
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
266 Passes 458
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 0-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
30.01.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-3 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
30.07.2023 Basel Basel 5-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
30.04.2023 Winterthur Winterthur 1-4 HT 1-2 Basel Basel İSV
01.04.2023 Basel Basel 2-0 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
23.10.2022 Basel Basel 3-1 HT 2-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Winterthur
1-6
AWAY Basel
0.81 xG 2.73
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 23
6 Shots on Target 11
6 Corners 7
370 Passes 488
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 38
24 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Winterthur vs Basel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel cruised past Winterthur 6-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Basel as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Winterthur had 44% of the ball to Basel's 56%, shots finished 14-23, expected goals 0.81 to 2.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Basel led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Winterthur and 3.00 for Basel.

What was the final score of Winterthur vs Basel?

Winterthur 1-6 Basel in the Switzerland - Super League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winterthur vs Basel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Winterthur 24%, draw 21%, Basel 55%. The final score 1-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Basel), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Basel) ✓ Over 2.5
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