Fortuna Köln 1-3 Paderborn 07 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.1pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Köln EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn 07 II EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.54/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.81
-16% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Köln
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Paderborn 07 II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2024 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 0-0 HT 0-0 Paderborn 07 II Paderborn 07 II ALMBÖL
13.08.2023 Paderborn 07 II Paderborn 07 II 1-2 HT 0-1 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Fortuna Köln vs Paderborn 07 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn 07 II saw off Fortuna Köln 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Köln at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fortuna Köln had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortuna Köln and 0.50 for Paderborn 07 II.

What was the final score of Fortuna Köln vs Paderborn 07 II?

Fortuna Köln 1-3 Paderborn 07 II in the Germany - Regional League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Köln vs Paderborn 07 II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Köln 45%, draw 24%, Paderborn 07 II 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Köln) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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