SGV Freiberg 1-0 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
32%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
31%
+7.1pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.5pp
32%
Away Win
44%
-11.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.5pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 48%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.72/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.05
+24% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Homburg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.04.2024 Homburg Homburg 0-3 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
30.09.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
10.12.2022 Homburg Homburg 5-1 HT 2-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
20.08.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-0 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg nicked a narrow win over Homburg 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day SGV Freiberg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for SGV Freiberg and 1.50 for Homburg.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Homburg?

SGV Freiberg 1-0 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 38%, draw 30%, Homburg 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SGV Freiberg), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ BTTS No
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