Flamengo 4-2 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
23%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.12
6+ Goals
13%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 27% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.65
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
19.95
X/1
25%
3.47
X/2
8%
15.95
X/X
6%
6.55
2/1
10%
23.15
2/2
7%
13.0
2/X
8%
20.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
69%
-13.3pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.4pp
23%
Away Win
12%
+10.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 15%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.85/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.95
-6% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
22.1 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Juventude
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.85 xG 0.83
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
438 Passes 264
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.06.2024 Juventude Juventude 2-1 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
10.11.2022 Juventude Juventude 2-2 HT 2-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
21.07.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 4-0 HT 3-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
14.10.2021 Flamengo Flamengo 3-1 HT 3-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
27.06.2021 Juventude Juventude 1-0 HT 1-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
23.09.2007 Juventude Juventude 2-2 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
4-2
AWAY Juventude
2.53 xG 0.61
74% Ball Possession 26%
20 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
552 Passes 152
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
44 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo beat Juventude 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Flamengo had 74% of the ball to Juventude's 26%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.53 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Flamengo and 1.33 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Juventude?

Flamengo 4-2 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 55%, draw 22%, Juventude 23%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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