Gremio 3-1 Atletico Goianiense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.3
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.57
6+ Goals
11%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 25% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.04
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.1
X/1
19%
3.72
X/2
6%
10.55
X/X
11%
5.22
2/1
10%
23.6
2/2
10%
8.57
2/X
8%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-8.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.70/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.38
+8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.6 Crosses 17.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Atletico Goianiense
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.98 xG 1.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
408 Passes 359
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
27.06.2024 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
26.10.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
05.07.2021 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
28.12.2020 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
07.09.2020 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 1-1 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
26.11.2017 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
3-1
AWAY Atletico Goianiense
1.97 xG 1.54
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
323 Passes 341
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 16
8 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio got the better of Atletico Goianiense 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Gremio had 48% of the ball to Atletico Goianiense's 52%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.97 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Goianiense led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Gremio and 1.17 for Atletico Goianiense.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense?

Gremio 3-1 Atletico Goianiense in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Atletico Goianiense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Gremio 51%, draw 26%, Atletico Goianiense 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
26 Oct 2024
22:30 Flamengo vs Juventude Analysis →
22:30 Vitoria vs Fluminense Analysis →
22:30 Palmeiras vs Fortaleza Analysis →