Vitoria 2-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
16%
5.75
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.54
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
10%
4.79
X/2
11%
6.12
X/X
11%
3.4
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
13%
5.02
2/X
11%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.2pp
30%
Draw
32%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-0.5pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+0.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.4pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 33%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -19%
1.40/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.37
-31% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
319 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 83%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
24.7 Crosses 16.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Fluminense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.46 xG 0.58
42% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
250 Passes 402
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.06.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
07.09.2018 Fluminense Fluminense 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
06.05.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
10.09.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 2-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.06.2017 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
29.10.2016 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 2-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
2-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.40 xG 0.59
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
339 Passes 363
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 21
33 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria edged past Fluminense 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Vitoria made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria had 50% of the ball to Fluminense's 50%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.40 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vitoria and 1.33 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Fluminense?

Vitoria 2-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 37%, draw 30%, Fluminense 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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