Lens 0-2 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Oct 2024

Lens
0-2 HT 0-0
Lille
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.92
6+ Goals
9%
17.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 30% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
10%
4.49
X/2
19%
7.18
X/X
15%
4.31
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
9%
5.47
2/X
7%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
46%
-8.7pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.69/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.18
-1% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +40%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
418 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
22.3 Crosses 13.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lille
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.38 xG 1.71
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
360 Passes 393
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.03.2024 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
08.10.2023 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
04.03.2023 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
09.10.2022 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
16.04.2022 Lille Lille 1-2 HT 1-2 Lens Lens FR1
04.01.2022 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
0-2
AWAY Lille
1.09 xG 1.94
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
325 Passes 231
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lens vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille beat Lens 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Lille made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Lens had 58% of the ball to Lille's 42%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.09 to 1.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lens and 1.33 for Lille.

What was the final score of Lens vs Lille?

Lens 0-2 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lens 37%, draw 29%, Lille 34%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lens) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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