Hajduk Split 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.32
Draw
26%
4.81
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 25% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
71%
-17.9pp
26%
Draw
18%
+7.9pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +13%
1.60/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.75
-9% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 73%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
22.4 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.80 xG 1.32
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
343 Passes 256
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
16.03.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
08.12.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
23.09.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
07.05.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
05.03.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-4 HT 1-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
2-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.65 xG 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
340 Passes 384
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split edged past Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 47% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 53%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.65 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Hajduk Split and 1.33 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Hajduk Split 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 53%, draw 26%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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