Rijeka 1-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.79
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.19
6+ Goals
7%
20.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 34% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.2pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.2pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.0pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 19%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.65/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.15
+31% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.5 Crosses 12.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 0.69
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
344 Passes 264
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
11.05.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 3-1 HT 2-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
03.03.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
25.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
03.09.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-2 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
14.05.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
1-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.21 xG 1.05
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
328 Passes 302
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka and NK Varazdin couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Rijeka at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Rijeka had 52% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 48%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.21 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Rijeka and 1.17 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs NK Varazdin?

Rijeka 1-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 53%, draw 29%, NK Varazdin 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rijeka), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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