Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Groningen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
35%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.24
6+ Goals
11%
21.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.83
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.33
X/2 EV+ ✗
16%
7.02
X/X
7%
4.24
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
12%
5.57
2/X
8%
14.6
Value flag · X/2 at 7.02 — our 16% vs market 10.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.0pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.9pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+7.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Groningen EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -14%
1.51/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.41
-11% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
313 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
22.6 Crosses 16.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Groningen
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.92 xG 1.22
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
239 Passes 371
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2024 Groningen Groningen 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOK
02.04.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-1 HT 2-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
13.11.2022 Groningen Groningen 2-3 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
12.02.2022 Groningen Groningen 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
27.11.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-4 HT 1-2 Groningen Groningen HOL
28.02.2021 Groningen Groningen 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-0
AWAY Groningen
0.71 xG 0.40
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
271 Passes 231
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard edged past Groningen 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fortuna Sittard as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 53% of the ball to Groningen's 47%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.71 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Sittard had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.33 for Groningen.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen?

Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Groningen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Sittard win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 43%, draw 22%, Groningen 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Sittard) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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