NAC Breda 4-1 RKC Waalwijk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 26 Oct 2024

NAC Breda
4-1 HT 2-1
RKC Waalwijk
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NAC Breda vs RKC Waalwijk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.63
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.33 — our 28% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.09
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.2
X/1
22%
3.89
X/2
10%
10.05
X/X
10%
5.37
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
2/2
10%
7.77
2/X
9%
15.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.8pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v RKC Waalwijk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 23%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.44/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.85
-12% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
31.0 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

NAC Breda vs RKC Waalwijk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
1W-1D-4L
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.31 xG 0.90
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 4
445 Passes 240
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 17
32 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.07.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-3 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HAZ
23.07.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-2 HT 0-2 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HAZ
25.09.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOK
10.02.2017 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-3 HT 1-2 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
16.09.2016 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-4 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
08.04.2016 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2

NAC Breda 4-1 RKC Waalwijk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
4-1
AWAY RKC Waalwijk
3.35 xG 0.51
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
461 Passes 214
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs RKC Waalwijk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda ran out comfortable winners over RKC Waalwijk 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NAC Breda as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, NAC Breda had 66% of the ball to RKC Waalwijk's 34%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 3.35 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, RKC Waalwijk led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NAC Breda and 2.17 for RKC Waalwijk.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs RKC Waalwijk?

NAC Breda 4-1 RKC Waalwijk in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs RKC Waalwijk?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 50%, draw 24%, RKC Waalwijk 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NAC Breda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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