Deportes Tolima 1-1 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.76
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
53%
-11.5pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.1pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.8pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +21%
1.20/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.09
+8% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
17.2 Crosses 13.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportes Tolima
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 0.87
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
363 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.05.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
13.05.2024 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
06.04.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
22.07.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
31.01.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.09.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportes Tolima
1-1
AWAY Once Caldas
0.43 xG 0.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
331 Passes 271
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportes Tolima and Once Caldas shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Deportes Tolima had 54% of the ball to Once Caldas's 46%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.43 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportes Tolima and 0.83 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?

Deportes Tolima 1-1 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Deportes Tolima 42%, draw 30%, Once Caldas 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportes Tolima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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