Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.02
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.36
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.52
6+ Goals
8%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 32% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.82
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
13%
4.66
X/2
12%
7.13
X/X
17%
4.59
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
14%
5.15
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
46%
-9.8pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.0pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+9.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-9.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -22%
1.53/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.25
+8% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
350 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
23.6 Crosses 19.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Samsunspor
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.59
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
265 Passes 264
66% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.04.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-0 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
09.12.2023 Samsunspor Samsunspor 4-2 HT 2-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
19.04.2009 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-1 HT 1-1 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
29.11.2008 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-1 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa T1L
18.02.2007 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-1 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
10.09.2006 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
1-4
AWAY Samsunspor
1.40 xG 2.38
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 5
308 Passes 232
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samsunspor cruised past Kasımpaşa 4-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 32% / 32%) promised a tight game; Samsunspor found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 55% of the ball to Samsunspor's 45%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.40 to 2.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.33 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?

Kasımpaşa 1-4 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 36%, draw 32%, Samsunspor 32%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TSL More Turkey - Super League
26 Oct 2024
13:30 Hatayspor vs Kayserispor Analysis →
19:00 Göztepe vs Trabzonspor Analysis →