KTP Kotka 2-3 TPS Turku — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
35%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.12
2-3 Goals
39%
2.01
4-5 Goals
23%
2.79
6+ Goals
12%
7.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.32
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
13%
4.66
X/2
13%
8.5
X/X
12%
6.27
2/1
6%
19.75
2/2
14%
5.78
2/X
6%
14.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.0 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
52%
-11.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
35%
Away Win
25%
+10.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.9pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.0pp
42%
BTTS No
38%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KTP Kotka EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY TPS Turku EU Bookmakers 29%
-36% / -36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -26%
1.00/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.59
-49% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KTP Kotka
2W-1D-3L
AWAY TPS Turku
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
346 Passes 427
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.10.2025 TPS Turku TPS Turku 3-0 HT 0-0 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN
19.10.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-1 HT 0-0 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
17.07.2024 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 1-2 HT 0-2 TPS Turku TPS Turku FİN2
18.05.2024 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-4 HT 1-2 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
08.10.2022 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka 0-1 HT 0-1 TPS Turku TPS Turku FINY
04.07.2022 TPS Turku TPS Turku 1-3 HT 1-1 KTP Kotka KTP Kotka FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KTP Kotka
2-3
AWAY TPS Turku
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 5
309 Passes 152
73% Pass Accuracy 62%
7 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KTP Kotka vs TPS Turku
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TPS Turku squeezed past KTP Kotka 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was KTP Kotka at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, KTP Kotka had 55% of the ball to TPS Turku's 45%, shots finished 13-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, TPS Turku led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for KTP Kotka and 1.50 for TPS Turku.

What was the final score of KTP Kotka vs TPS Turku?

KTP Kotka 2-3 TPS Turku in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KTP Kotka vs TPS Turku?

Before kick-off our model rated a KTP Kotka win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split KTP Kotka 41%, draw 24%, TPS Turku 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (KTP Kotka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (KTP Kotka) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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