Lille 6-1 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 26 Oct 2025

Lille
6-1 HT 2-0
Metz
📅26/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
76%
1.25
Draw
15%
5.28
Away
9%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.51
Over
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.97
No
51%
1.74
Total Goals
0-1
24%
5.24
2-3
41%
1.98
4-5
25%
2.61
6+
10%
6.24
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.24 — our 24% vs market 14.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.4
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
5%
22.7
X/1
17%
3.87
X/2
3%
23.1
X/X
5%
8.81
2/1
13%
22.25
2/2
4%
20.2
2/X
5%
27.0
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille The Market 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz The Market 11%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -9%
1.98/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.32
-12% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -7%
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
513 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
19.6 Crosses 14.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Metz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.50 xG 1.21
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
486 Passes 257
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Metz Metz 1-2 HT 1-2 Lille Lille FR1
03.12.2023 Lille Lille 2-0 HT 2-0 Metz Metz FR1
18.02.2022 Lille Lille 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
08.08.2021 Metz Metz 3-3 HT 2-1 Lille Lille FR1
09.04.2021 Metz Metz 0-2 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
13.09.2020 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
6-1
AWAY Metz
2.92 xG 1.31
62% Ball Possession 38%
23 Total Shots 10
12 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
479 Passes 249
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
46 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Lille vs Metz
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lille dismantled Metz 6-1. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 76%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

The match data tells the story: Lille had 62% of the ball to Metz's 38%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 2.92 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lille and 0.67 for Metz.

Lille vs Metz Result & Final Score

Lille 6-1 Metz in the France - Ligue 1 on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Lille vs Metz Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 76%, with the full match-result split Lille 76%, draw 15%, Metz 9%. The final score 6-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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