Naxxar Lions 1-1 Hamrun Spartans — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
5.34
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
63%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
15%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
40%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
16%
-1.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.9pp
63%
Away Win
62%
+1.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamrun Spartans EU Bookmakers 66%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
0.29/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/0.46
-59% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
271 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 477 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naxxar Lions
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Hamrun Spartans
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 4.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
3 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2025 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 4-0 HT 3-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MALTP
27.09.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-6 HT 0-4 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
04.02.2024 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 4-1 HT 2-1 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
23.09.2023 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-4 HT 0-2 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naxxar Lions
1-1
AWAY Hamrun Spartans
31% Ball Possession 69%
4 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naxxar Lions vs Hamrun Spartans
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naxxar Lions and Hamrun Spartans shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

This one beat our numbers. Hamrun Spartans carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Naxxar Lions had 31% of the ball to Hamrun Spartans's 69%, shots finished 4-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hamrun Spartans led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Naxxar Lions and 4.50 for Hamrun Spartans.

What was the final score of Naxxar Lions vs Hamrun Spartans?

Naxxar Lions 1-1 Hamrun Spartans in the Malta - Premier League on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naxxar Lions vs Hamrun Spartans?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamrun Spartans win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Naxxar Lions 14%, draw 23%, Hamrun Spartans 63%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hamrun Spartans), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamrun Spartans) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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26 Oct 2025
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