Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
6%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-2.0pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.45/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.67
-13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -20%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
372 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Progreso
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2025 Progreso Progreso 0-2 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
03.11.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1 HT 1-1 Progreso Progreso URU
28.04.2024 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
03.10.2021 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 0-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
04.06.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-3 HT 0-2 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
30.01.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-4 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
3-1
AWAY Progreso
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) got the better of Progreso 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liverpool FC (Montevideo) as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) had 48% of the ball to Progreso's 52%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) and 0.83 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Progreso?

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool FC (Montevideo) win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 54%, draw 24%, Progreso 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)) ✓ BTTS Yes
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