Danubio 0-1 CA River Plate — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 26 Oct 2025

📅26/10/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.03
No
46%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
25%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
45%
+8.6pp
46%
BTTS No
55%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Danubio EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY CA River Plate EU Bookmakers 25%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -18%
1.21/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.22
-27% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Danubio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY CA River Plate
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.04.2025 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
15.09.2024 Danubio Danubio 3-0 HT 1-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
02.03.2024 CA River Plate CA River Plate 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URU
11.11.2023 Danubio Danubio 0-0 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
22.07.2023 Danubio Danubio 0-0 HT 0-0 CA River Plate CA River Plate URU
31.03.2023 CA River Plate CA River Plate 2-1 HT 2-0 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Danubio
0-1
AWAY CA River Plate
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Danubio vs CA River Plate
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA River Plate edged past Danubio 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Danubio at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Danubio had 60% of the ball to CA River Plate's 40%, shots finished 18-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA River Plate led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Danubio and 0.67 for CA River Plate.

What was the final score of Danubio vs CA River Plate?

Danubio 0-1 CA River Plate in the Uruguay - Premier League on 26/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Danubio vs CA River Plate?

Before kick-off our model rated a Danubio win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Danubio 51%, draw 26%, CA River Plate 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Danubio), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Danubio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
26 Oct 2025
00:30 Cerro Largo vs Racing Club Montevideo Analysis →
22:00 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Progreso Analysis →