Chester 3-1 Oxford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Nov 2024

📅26/11/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.42
2-3 Goals
45%
1.81
4-5 Goals
17%
3.55
6+ Goals
7%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 31% vs market 24.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.9pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chester EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Oxford City EU Bookmakers 27%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.59/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.27
-4% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
323 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chester
3-1
AWAY Oxford City
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chester vs Oxford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chester saw off Oxford City 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chester as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chester had 49% of the ball to Oxford City's 51%, shots finished 9-8.

What was the final score of Chester vs Oxford City?

Chester 3-1 Oxford City in the England - Conference on 26/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chester vs Oxford City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chester win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Chester 47%, draw 28%, Oxford City 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chester) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chester) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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