Aveley 1-1 AFC Hornchurch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
16.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
14%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.6pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.8pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+2.3pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aveley EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 42%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.69/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/1.74
+28% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aveley
2W-1D-0L
AWAY AFC Hornchurch
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
03.10.2023 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 1-2 HT 1-0 Aveley Aveley FAK
30.09.2023 Aveley Aveley 2-2 HT 2-0 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch FAK
11.01.2020 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 1-2 HT 1-1 Aveley Aveley FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aveley
1-1
AWAY AFC Hornchurch
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aveley vs AFC Hornchurch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aveley and AFC Hornchurch couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 31% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Aveley had 55% of the ball to AFC Hornchurch's 45%, shots finished 7-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Aveley had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aveley and 1.33 for AFC Hornchurch.

What was the final score of Aveley vs AFC Hornchurch?

Aveley 1-1 AFC Hornchurch in the England - Conference on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aveley vs AFC Hornchurch?

Before kick-off our model rated an AFC Hornchurch win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Aveley 34%, draw 31%, AFC Hornchurch 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Hornchurch) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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