Stoke City 0-2 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 26 Dec 2024

Stoke City
0-2 HT 0-1
Leeds United
📅26/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Stoke City vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.34
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
51%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.97
Over
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.44
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
25%
3.27
6+
11%
11.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
10.25
1/2 ✗
11%
23.4
1/X
8%
18.55
X/1
10%
12.6
X/2
19%
3.63
X/X
7%
5.78
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
1.87
2/X
8%
17.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.4 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
16%
+9.6pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
51%
Away Win
63%
-11.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.6pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stoke City v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 67%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
0.92/2.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.79
-12% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +13%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
236 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 82%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.3
14.9 Crosses 18.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.4

Stoke City vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Leeds United
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.72 xG 2.21
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
213 Passes 476
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.03.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 1-0 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
25.10.2023 Stoke City Stoke City 1-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
09.07.2020 Leeds United Leeds United 5-0 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
27.08.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 2-2 HT 0-2 Stoke City Stoke City İNLK
24.08.2019 Stoke City Stoke City 0-3 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
19.01.2019 Stoke City Stoke City 2-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL

Stoke City 0-2 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City
0-2
AWAY Leeds United
24% Ball Possession 76%
3 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
107 Passes 578
53% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Stoke City vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United beat Stoke City 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Stoke City had 24% of the ball to Leeds United's 76%, shots finished 3-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Stoke City and 2.00 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Stoke City vs Leeds United?

Stoke City 0-2 Leeds United in the England - Championship on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 25%, draw 24%, Leeds United 51%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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