Leeds United 1-0 Stoke City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Mar 2024

Leeds United
1-0 HT 1-0
Stoke City
📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Leeds United vs Stoke City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.61
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
11%
8.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.6
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
20.25
X/1
17%
3.52
X/2
7%
16.5
X/X
9%
7.25
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
2/2
10%
12.75
2/X
5%
20.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-10.8pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.3pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leeds United v Stoke City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leeds United EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Stoke City EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
2.10/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.63
+1% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +1%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
432 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
35.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
22.2 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Leeds United vs Stoke City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leeds United
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Stoke City
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.10 xG 0.89
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
450 Passes 212
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.10.2023 Stoke City Stoke City 1-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
09.07.2020 Leeds United Leeds United 5-0 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
27.08.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 2-2 HT 0-2 Stoke City Stoke City İNLK
24.08.2019 Stoke City Stoke City 0-3 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
19.01.2019 Stoke City Stoke City 2-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
05.08.2018 Leeds United Leeds United 3-1 HT 2-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL

Leeds United 1-0 Stoke City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leeds United
1-0
AWAY Stoke City
2.32 xG 0.94
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
445 Passes 277
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leeds United vs Stoke City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United nicked a narrow win over Stoke City 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Leeds United had 59% of the ball to Stoke City's 41%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 2.32 to 0.94 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leeds United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Leeds United and 1.00 for Stoke City.

What was the final score of Leeds United vs Stoke City?

Leeds United 1-0 Stoke City in the England - Championship on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leeds United vs Stoke City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Leeds United 55%, draw 23%, Stoke City 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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