Hull City 1-1 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Mar 2024

📅05/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 28% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.19
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
16%
4.18
X/2
6%
9.39
X/X
13%
5.59
2/1
6%
21.45
2/2
13%
6.71
2/X
5%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.0pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hull City EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.35/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.50
-10% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
400 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 71%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
20.1 Crosses 15.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hull City
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Birmingham
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.97 xG 0.97
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
371 Passes 237
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.01.2024 Birmingham Birmingham 2-1 HT 0-1 Hull City Hull City FAK
06.01.2024 Hull City Hull City 1-1 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham FAK
25.10.2023 Birmingham Birmingham 0-2 HT 0-1 Hull City Hull City İNCL
30.12.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 0-1 HT 0-0 Hull City Hull City İNCL
16.10.2022 Hull City Hull City 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
12.03.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Hull City Hull City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hull City
1-1
AWAY Birmingham
1.52 xG 0.41
63% Ball Possession 37%
22 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
609 Passes 317
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hull City vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hull City and Birmingham couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hull City at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Hull City had 63% of the ball to Birmingham's 37%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 1.52 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hull City and 0.83 for Birmingham.

What was the final score of Hull City vs Birmingham?

Hull City 1-1 Birmingham in the England - Championship on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hull City vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hull City win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hull City 50%, draw 26%, Birmingham 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hull City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hull City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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