Ipswich Town 3-2 Bristol City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 5 Mar 2024

Ipswich Town
3-2 HT 0-0
Bristol City
📅05/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Ipswich Town vs Bristol City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.85
X/1
25%
3.76
X/2
10%
10.75
X/X
10%
5.27
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
11%
8.66
2/X
9%
16.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+7.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ipswich Town v Bristol City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ipswich Town EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol City EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
2.06/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.45
+47% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +9%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 66%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
21.1 Crosses 15.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.8

Ipswich Town vs Bristol City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ipswich Town
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bristol City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 1.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
290 Passes 283
69% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.10.2023 Bristol City Bristol City 0-1 HT 0-1 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
12.03.2019 Bristol City Bristol City 1-1 HT 1-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
28.11.2018 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 2-3 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
17.03.2018 Bristol City Bristol City 1-0 HT 0-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İNCL
30.09.2017 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 1-3 HT 1-2 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
30.12.2016 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL

Ipswich Town 3-2 Bristol City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ipswich Town
3-2
AWAY Bristol City
2.80 xG 0.97
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
376 Passes 255
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ipswich Town vs Bristol City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ipswich Town edged past Bristol City 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ipswich Town as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ipswich Town had 57% of the ball to Bristol City's 43%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.80 to 0.97 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ipswich Town's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ipswich Town and 1.50 for Bristol City.

What was the final score of Ipswich Town vs Bristol City?

Ipswich Town 3-2 Bristol City in the England - Championship on 05/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ipswich Town vs Bristol City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ipswich Town win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ipswich Town 50%, draw 24%, Bristol City 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ipswich Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ipswich Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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