Baglan Dragons 1-2 Trefelin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 26 Dec 2024

📅26/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
40%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
45%
-13.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
40%
Away Win
30%
+10.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.3pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Trefelin EU Bookmakers 33%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
2.14/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/2.05
+12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baglan Dragons
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Trefelin
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
26.08.2024 Trefelin Trefelin 2-0 HT 1-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
24.02.2024 Trefelin Trefelin 1-1 HT 1-1 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
25.11.2023 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 4-1 HT 0-0 Trefelin Trefelin GALFAW
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Trefelin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trefelin edged past Baglan Dragons 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Trefelin made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Baglan Dragons and 1.33 for Trefelin.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Trefelin?

Baglan Dragons 1-2 Trefelin in the Wales - FAW Championship on 26/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Trefelin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trefelin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 31%, draw 28%, Trefelin 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trefelin), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trefelin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GALFAW More Wales - FAW Championship
26 Dec 2024
15:30 Bangor 1876 vs Colwyn Bay Analysis →
16:00 Denbigh Town vs Ruthin Town Analysis →
17:00 Airbus UK vs Buckley Town Analysis →
17:00 Prestatyn Town vs Llandudno FC Analysis →
17:00 Llantwit Major vs Cambrian & Clydach Analysis →
17:00 Penrhiwceiber Rangers vs Caerau (Ely) Analysis →