ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 Bengaluru — Result, Statistics & Match Review — India - Super League, 27 Jan 2025

ATK Mohun Bagan
1-0 HT 0-0
Bengaluru
📅27/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
India - Super League – 2025/2026

ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.03
Over Pick
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.63
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
22%
3.04
6+
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-9.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+8.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ATK Mohun Bagan v Bengaluru — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Bengaluru EU Bookmakers 22%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.57/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.19
+30% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +26%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
18.2 Crosses 16.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bengaluru
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.38 xG 1.37
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
320 Passes 272
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Bengaluru Bengaluru 3-0 HT 2-0 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
11.04.2024 Bengaluru Bengaluru 0-4 HT 0-1 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
27.09.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 HT 0-0 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
18.03.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 2-2 HT 1-1 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
05.02.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 1-2 HT 0-0 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
03.12.2022 Bengaluru Bengaluru 0-1 HT 0-0 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL

ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 Bengaluru — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan
1-0
AWAY Bengaluru
0.51 xG 1.05
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
220 Passes 453
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ATK Mohun Bagan nicked a narrow win over Bengaluru 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had ATK Mohun Bagan as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, ATK Mohun Bagan had 36% of the ball to Bengaluru's 64%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.51 to 1.05 — on chances, Bengaluru could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ATK Mohun Bagan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for ATK Mohun Bagan and 1.17 for Bengaluru.

What was the final score of ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru?

ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 Bengaluru in the India - Super League on 27/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru?

Before kick-off our model rated a ATK Mohun Bagan win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split ATK Mohun Bagan 48%, draw 24%, Bengaluru 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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