Bengaluru 3-0 ATK Mohun Bagan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — India - Super League, 28 Sep 2024

Bengaluru
3-0 HT 2-0
ATK Mohun Bagan
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
India - Super League – 2025/2026

Bengaluru vs ATK Mohun Bagan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.53
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
43%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.9
Over 2.5
38%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.68
No
60%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
3.39
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.5
6+ Goals
8%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 38% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
21%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
36%
-9.8pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.2pp
43%
Away Win
37%
+6.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
49%
+13.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
51%
-13.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
56%
-15.1pp
60%
BTTS No
44%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bengaluru v ATK Mohun Bagan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bengaluru EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY ATK Mohun Bagan EU Bookmakers 40%
+15% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.14/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.10
+4% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 73%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
16.1 Crosses 15.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Bengaluru vs ATK Mohun Bagan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bengaluru
1W-1D-4L
AWAY ATK Mohun Bagan
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.18 xG 1.32
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
273 Passes 321
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.04.2024 Bengaluru Bengaluru 0-4 HT 0-1 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
27.09.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 HT 0-0 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
18.03.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 2-2 HT 1-1 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
05.02.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 1-2 HT 0-0 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
03.12.2022 Bengaluru Bengaluru 0-1 HT 0-0 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
27.02.2022 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 2-0 HT 1-0 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL

Bengaluru 3-0 ATK Mohun Bagan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bengaluru
3-0
AWAY ATK Mohun Bagan
1.84 xG 0.88
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 20
9 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 9
322 Passes 239
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bengaluru vs ATK Mohun Bagan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bengaluru cruised past ATK Mohun Bagan 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was ATK Mohun Bagan at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.

On the day, Bengaluru had 55% of the ball to ATK Mohun Bagan's 45%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 1.84 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, ATK Mohun Bagan led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bengaluru and 1.83 for ATK Mohun Bagan.

What was the final score of Bengaluru vs ATK Mohun Bagan?

Bengaluru 3-0 ATK Mohun Bagan in the India - Super League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bengaluru vs ATK Mohun Bagan?

Before kick-off our model rated an ATK Mohun Bagan win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bengaluru 26%, draw 30%, ATK Mohun Bagan 43%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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